Ok now let’s get into the Saturday Games which has several good ranked on ranked opponents with some upset possibilities. Here is what the trends and stats say to take, strictly for entertainment purposes only.
The early games start with 1 loss #4 Ohio State traveling to unbeaten #5 Indiana. The Buckeyes are favored by -3 1/2 points. The defending champion Hoosiers have been pushed to the limit twice this year already and if they weren’t looking ahead last week, they are going down this weekend. They are 4-10 against the spread versus Ohio State at home. They are also 16-8 against the spread versus the Big including 1 and 2 this year. The Buckeyes are 20-10-1 against the spread versus The Big including 1 and 2 this year. They have been getting better since their 4th quarter collapse on the road at Texas. This is a huge game, but I can’t find enough of an edge to pick. I am passing here. Moving to Austin, Texas where the #7 Longhorns are favored by -11 points against the Florida Gators. The Gators have been blasted 2 weeks in a row by Missouri and South Carolina. I am not sure the Texas offense can put up enough points to blow out Florida, but they can take advantage of the Gator secondary. Texas is only 1-7 against the spread following the Red River Shoot Out but are 21-15-1 against the spread at home including 1 and 2 this year. Florida is 11-5 Over on the road including 2 and 0 this year. That seems to be the spot. I would make it a play, but Gator starting quarterback may or may not play. For that reason I am only leaning Over 51. The SEC provides #16 Mississippi State going to #22 LSU. State is 16-10 against the spread in SEC road tilts including 1 and 0 this year. Something is wrong here. The Tigers opened a 12 point favorite, but it is now a 16 point line. My advice is to leave this game alone. There are a couple of ACC games to look at in the early time slot. Pittsburgh coming off their first loss of the year travels to Chestnut Hills as a 6 point favorite playing Boston College. First question I ask myself was why is this line so low. The Eagles lack of offense (they have a season high in points of 28 against Rutgers and 22 against Maine and less than 2 touchdowns in their other 3 games) offsets Pitt’s; quarterback making only his second start. The Panthers are 14-4 against the spread as a road favorite in conference games. Boston College is 30-20-1 against the spread as a single digit dog. A line this smelly usually means stay clear, but they have trapped me. Take Pitt -6. The other ACC early game has #24 SMU hosting Virginia and are favored by -9 points. SMU is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 after a bye week. I am going to give a slight lean to SMU -9 points.
The mid day games offer Auburn off a bye week heading to #1 Georgia for The South’s Oldest Rivalry. The Bulldogs may be a tad flat off their win in Tuscaloosa last week, but the line is 21. That is extremely high in a rivalry game. I can’t play a line that high but I will share the stats. Auburn is only 12-31 straight up in SEC play. Georgia is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread the last 9 games at home versus Auburn. Use the information as you see fit and good luck. I am passing here. The “cigar game” takes place in Knoxville, Tennessee this year. #6 Alabama travels up to #14 Tennessee as an -8 point favorite. Bama is banged up after the loss to Georgia last week but are 13-3 against the spread off a straight up loss the next week. The Vols have won the last 2 at home in this series, both as the underdog. I am passing on this game as well. The next game is the how far how they fallen game. Unranked Penn State is coming off of 3 consecutive losses heading to unranked Michigan coming off 2 consecutive looses and a bye. The Wolverines are terrible at best on offense but does play solid defense. The Nittany Lions have struggled to do anything right. Michigan is favored by -6 points. They are also 3-0 straight up and against the spread the last 3 meetings. I will lean Michigan -6. The #13 Missouri Tigers invade Oxford, Mississippi to face #9 Ole Miss. The Rebels are favored by -5 1/2 points. They are also 34 and 3 straight up at home the last 5 years. They are however only 4-11-1against the spread as a home favorite in SEC play. Missouri is an awful 2 and 21 against the spread versus ranked SEC opponents including 1-0 this year. The line opened at -6 1/2 and has now dropped to -5 1/2. Give me Ole Miss minus the touchdown. There is an under the radar game to look at. Georgia Tech travels to Virginia Tech as a 10 1/2 point dog. The visitor in this series is 11 and 7 straight up and 14-4 against the spread. Those stats tell me to take the points, but since The Jackets offense is bad, I only lean Georgia Tech+10 1/2.
The night games have some interesting contests to look at. The headliner is unbeaten #2 Notre Dame going to unbeaten #8 BYU as 10 1/2 point favorites. The Cougars are 7-0 against the spread versus ranked teams and 7-1 against the spread as home dogs. If BYU can find a running attack to go with quarterback Hank Bachmeier, they are capable of pulling off the upset. I don’t know if they win outright, but I do believe The Cougars keep it close. Take BYU +10 1/2. The game I am not playing but will mention is unbeaten #3 Miami hosting Florida State. The Canes are favored by -21 points. They are also only 12-20 against the spread in conference games. The Seminoles are a woeful 2-12 against the spread away from Tallahassee. Use the information as you see fit and good luck. Turning our attention to #15 Kentucky going to unranked Oklahoma fresh off their upset of then #1 Texas. The Sooners are favored by -6 1/2 points. Oklahoma is 12-7 against the spread at home including 1 and 1 this year. Kentucky is 39-25-2 against the spread as a dog including 2-1 this year both being outright wins. Don’t be shocked if The Cats do it again. Give me Kentucky +6 1/2. Maybe the most entertaining game will be played in Houston, Texas where #18 Oklahoma State travels to play #20 Houston. The Cougars are favored by -4 1/2. Houston is only 2-10 against the spread as a home favorite including 0-1 this year. Both teams can score and score quickly. The Over in this series is 6 and 0. For that reason I lean Over 62. The last game of the night takes place in Los Angeles where Wisconsin comes calling on unbeaten #12 UCLA fresh off their upset of Oregon in Eugene last week. Talk about a smelly fish? Here it is. The Bruins are only favored by 2 1/2. Does somebody know something? UCLA is 26-41-2 against the spread at home including 1-0-1 this year. They are also only 15-29-2 against the spread as a home favorite. I will go with the stinky fish to remove the home Bruins (still patting themselves on the back) from the unbeatens. Take Wisconsin + 2 1/2.
Well that is all for week 7. Here is a list of this week’s leans and plays. Leans: Tulane + 7 1/2; Florida/Texas Over 51; SMU -9; Michigan -6; Georgia Tech+10 1/2; and Oklahoma State/Houston Over 62. The plays are: Jax State -3; East Carolina -4; Pitt -6; Ole Miss + 5 1/2; BYU + 10 1/2; Kentucky + 6 1/2; and Wisconsin + 2 1/2. Best of luck to everyone. Check back next week for Week 8.
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