What a week 7 was in college football with #’s 1,2,5,6, and 7 all going down. Now there are only 6 teams still unbeaten. There will be more upsets coming this weekend. I am going to post the entire week’s games by Tuesday morning since the wife and I are going out of town for a few days. If you enjoy traveling, check out our trips on this blog at the same web site. I think I have some places to go, things to do, restaurants, and ideas for you and yours. Well, enough of that, I had a decent week with my leans going 4-1-1 for a yearly total of 17-17-1. The plays ended at 3-3-1 bringing that year’s total to a respectable 22-15-2. Here is week 8, strictly for entertainment purposes only, of course.
Tuesday night gives us 2 CUSA games and 1 Sunbelt game. I only have information on 1 game and it is solid trends and stats. If you are going to watch Tuesday Night Football, you may as well play something. Middle Tennessee State travels to South Florida to face Florida International as a 10 point road dog. The home team is 9-4 straight up and 10-3 against the spread. FIU is also 12-5-1 against the spread their last 18 games including 4-0-1 this year. Those strong stats are enough for me to lay the points, take FIU -10. I have nothing on the South Alabama at Marshall game nor the Missouri State at Delaware game. If you like anybody, good luck.
There is only 1 game on Wednesday night and it is a stinker. New Mexico State travels to Sam Houston State for another CUSA game. The only information I have is this one is it will put you to sleep, so just go on to bed.
Thursday’s games are a little better. James Madison travels to Appalachian State as a 10 point favorite. Appy State has covered the last 5 times they were a dog, but that is not enough for me to play this game. I need more info, so I will pass. I am also passing on Liberty at Kennesaw State game where Liberty is a -10 1/2 point favorite. The game I will put something out on is East Carolina going to Memphis. The home standing Tigers are favored by – 10 1/2 points. The home team has won and covered the last 4 years. Both teams are coming off losses they feel like they should have won. East Car lead at UAB untill the last 1 minute and 47 seconds when they gave up a 93 yard drive and then a pick 6. Memphis lost at Tulane by turning the ball over 5 times. I am going to lean Memphis -10 1/2.
Turning to Friday’s games of which there are 5 to pick from. I have zero information on Air Force heading to Wyoming, nor anything on the North Carolina State Wolfpack traveling to Palo Alto to play Stanford. I am not playing the boring game of UMass going to UConn as a -14 1/2 point dog. I will give you a trend if you just have to play this game. The favorite is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. I am just not going to lay that many points. If you play this game, best of luck. There is an American Conference Game that has Army going to Tulsa. The home Golden Hurricanes are a -1 1/2 point favorite. Tulsa is 15-25-2 against the spread at home including 1-0-1 this year. The Cadets are an impressive 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread on the road. I will lean Army + 1 1/2. There is what should be a very competitive ACC game with Duke going to Virginia. The home Cavaliers are favored by -1. Duke is coming off back to back losses by a total of 7 points. Virginia got off to a good start this year before injuries slowed them down. They looked much better last week with a few starters returning. Virginia also wants a measure of revenge after Duke knocked them out of the playoffs last year in The ACC Title Game. The Cavs are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series in Charlottesville. They are also 13-6 against the spread following a straight up loss. One stat that offsets these are Duke is 12-4 against the spread as a dog of 3 or less. Either way, I am taking the home team. Give me Virginia -1 1/2.
The early games on Saturday morning features a couple of good ones. New #1 Miami host Pittsburgh as a 22 point favorite. Since The Panthers lost their quarterback, they have no offense. That keeps me from playing Pitt. Still the home team in this series is 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the spread. That keeps me from playing Miami and the huge point spread. I pass. #6 Indiana goes to The Big House to face Michigan. Indy comes off their first loss in 22 games last week when their wide open receiver lost where he was on the field and stepped out of bounds. They lost to Ohio State by 4. How do they rebound this week as a -7 point favorite. The Hossiers are 8-4 against the spread as a road favorite including 1 and 1 this year. Michigan doesn’t have much offense, but their defense is legit. It may be a tough ask playing the traditional big boys of this league, but my gut tells me Coach Cig has them ready. Take Indiana -7. The last early game to look at is #18 LSU going to Auburn fresh off their upset of then #1 Georgia. You may think the home Tigers will be a little flat, but just being at home helps them; playing at 11:00 AM does not. The Bayou Tigers are in desperation mode having already lost 2 games. They are clinging to what slim playoff hopes they still have. LSU has the better roster, but they have really struggled on the road. Auburn is still only 13-31 including 2-2 this year in conference play. I am giving a slight lean to LSU -7 1/2.
The mid day slate of games is where I think the upsets may happen. Lets start with #2 BYU off the huge upset of Notre Dame and traveling to Tampa, Florida to play Central Florida as a -7 point favorite. The Knights are coming off a bye. Can The Cougars get back up on the road? Central Florida is 10-3 against the spread after a bye week. Give me Central Florida +7. The next game is # 11 Tennessee off their upset of Alabama now traveling to South Carolina. Another team coming off a bye. What is up here? South Carolina is a -2 point favorite. Smelly fish????? The Vols are 1 and 3 straight up and against the spread the last 4 trips to Columbia. The Gamecocks are 9-5 against the spread as a dog including 1-1 this year. Give me another home team off a bye against the team that was sky high last week. Take South Carolina -2. The next game up is Baylor going to Kansas as a -2 point favorite. Talk about one sided stats in this Big 12 contest. Baylor is 11-1 against the spread the last 12 in this series. Kansas is 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in this series at home. I am playing Baylor. -2.
The night games has a ACC tilt of Virginia Tech going to Clemson. The home Tigers are favored by -2 1/2 points. Clemson is 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in this series. Throw in the fact, The Hokies are only 6-14 against the spread as a single digit dog. Since Clemson has looked so bad, I am only going to lean Clemson -2 1/2. The headline game is #7 Ole Miss going to #19 Texas. The Longhorns are favored by -3 1/2. They are 24-16-1 against the spread at home but only 1-3 this year. Texas is coming off back to back losses to unranked teams in Oklahoma and Florida. They are another team in complete desperation mode. I know their defense is outstanding, but if Ole Miss gets it going, then Texas will not be able to keep up. That is why I will pass on this game. I am going to lean on an under the radar Pac 12 Conference Game. San Diego State travels to face Colorado State as a 3 point favorite. San Diego State has won and covered the last 4 against The Rams. I lean San Diego State -3. The final game of the day is a massive Big 12 Game. It has #14 Houston going to unbeaten #10 Utah. Houston’s only loss came at Texas Tech by 2 back in week 3. The home standing Utes are favored by -6 1/2. There are some conflicting stats here. Houston is 5-0 straight up in this series. They are also 23-18-1 against the spread on the road including 1 and 1 this year. Utah is 29-15 against the spread in conference home games including 1-0 this year. This should be a close back and forth game all night. I am taking Houston +6 1/2.
That covers week 8. I know it is all early and does not allow for injury updates or line moves. I always watch those things as well. The best angle of the stat and trend plays are those items do not have anything to do with anything except the past and history of teams and long standing series. If something happens that concerns you on game day, just don’t play that game. In any event here is week 8 in review. Leans: Memphis -10 1/2; Army + 1 1/2; LSU -7 1/2; Clemson -2 1/2; and San Diego State -3. The plays are: FIU -10; Virginia +1 1/2; Indiana – 7; Central Florida +7; South Carolina -2; Baylor -2; and Houston +6 1/2. Best of luck to all. Check back next week for more college football. However if you like to travel and hear about it, check this blog on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to hear about fall colors in the mountains of North Carolina and Georgia. Good luck again.
Leave a Reply