Welcome back. I am off to a very slow start going 1 and 3 on leans and 2 and 4 on picks last week. Hopefully you have still found the information informative and entertaining. Remember the next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing. The system I use wins over time, but if your first bet on a stat or trend is a loser and it was 7-2 going in; you would have had to have bet on it in the past to be ahead. That being said, this is a new week.
This week gets going with several good games including #13 Texas Tech hosting #22 Houston. Big implications early for the Big 12 title race where both teams have hopes of making the playoffs. #16 SMU heads to #23 Louisville in an ACC showdown. #7 LSU and Lane Kiffin head to Oxford Mississippi to take on #8 Ole Miss in a monster SEC matchup. Also unranked Florida goes to play unranked Auburn in a big game for both teams with new coaches trying to get off to a 3 and 0 start and not fall to 0-1 in conference play. The loser may be looking at another losing season, while the winner can begin to dream of a bowl game and successful year one.
I am now 4 and 7 on plays and only 2 and 6 on leans. Ok, new week, new games, and new attitude. Strictly for entertainment purposes only, lets find some winners.
The games start Thursday night with Pittsburgh hosting Syracuse. The Panthers are favored by 10 1/2. I have a couple of conflicting trends. The Pitt team is 19-9-1 over as a double digit favorite. However, the under is 6-1 when these 2 teams play each other. Name your poison or just watch. Since it is the only Thursday game, I will lean Over 51 1/2.
Friday Night’s two games are interesting in stats. #5 Miami goes to Wake Forest and is laying 21 points on the road. The Canes are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 against the spread versus The Demon Deacons. Wake is also 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread at home in conference openers. I don’t lay that many points as a rule, but this game could get ugly in a hurry. I will lean Miami -21. The other game has Big 12 Title implications written all over it. #22 Houston travels to Lubbock, Texas to face #13 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are favored -7 1/2. I know who I like or thought I did until I studied the trends and stats. Texas Tech is 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in this series. They are also 4-0 against the spread in conference openers. Houston is 2-0 straight up and against the spread in road openers under Coach Fritz. I will not bet into those stats, but don’t be shocked if Houston knocks off the 30 million dollar roster of Tech.
Now to the early games on Saturday. Bill Belichick takes his 2 and 0 North Carolina Tar Heels into Clemson. The Clemson team has looked more like Paper Tigers than a football team thru 2 games so far. They lost by 41 to LSU and barely beat Georgia Southern by 15. Clemson is favored by -3 1/2, but you have to wonder why. North Carolina looks like the better team with a win over TCU in the opener across the pond and then beat a FCS team. Clemson is only 13-28 against the spread off a straight up win. They are however, a respectable 4 and 1 against the spread versus Carolina. Still, I am going with the eyeball test in this one. Give me North Carolina +3 1/2.
Moving to the mid day games, impressive looking Mississippi State heads to Columbia for a date with South Carolina. The Gamecocks are favored -4. All everything quarterback LaNorris Sellers of South Carolina is back for his senior season and has started 2 and 0. They were expected to be unbeaten at this point of the season. The surprise team in The SEC so far this year is Mississippi State lead by KaMario Taylor. Believe me when I say he is “Super Mario.” The Bulldogs thrashed Minnesota at their house last week and have every team left on the Dogs schedule rethinking counting that game an automatic win. This game is going to be worth watching. South Carolina better not be looking ahead to Alabama next week or they will get bit this week. The home team in this series is 5-0 straight up and against the spread. The Cocks may have the better defense, but I will just watch this one. Florida State and embattled Coach Mike Norvell travel to #10 Alabama as a 19 1/2 point dog! The Tide has had this game circled for a year. Norvell could be fired early next week after this blow out. I am going to break my own rule again and lay a lot of points. Play this one with confidence. The headliner mid day game is #16 SMU traveling to #23 Louisville. Both are good teams and figure to battle Miami for ACC honors by years end. The Cardinals are favored by -1 1/2. Both teams are also battle tested as SMU went to Florida State on Labor Day and pulled out a win in a game which they had 4 turn overs, but still won. Louisville lost by 7 to #8 Ole Miss on a neutral field. The Mustangs are 11-8 against the spread on the road and Louisville is 2-1 under Coach Brohm in conference openers. I am going to play the home team. Give me Louisville -1 1/2.
The night games. First up is Florida heading to Auburn as a -2 point favorite. This is a huge game in The SEC. Both first year head coaches need to avoid a 0-1 start in conference play because both schedules are tough. The loser will have a difficult time avoiding another losing season, 5 straight for Auburn and 3 straight for Florida. The winner will have a good shot at a bowl game and a winning campaign. Florida has the better skill players, but is not yet tested and will have a quarterback making his first road start. Auburn will have the home field advantage and a rowdy atmosphere. Auburn is 0-3 straight up and against the spread in conference openers and also only 11-29 against the spread in SEC games the last 5 years. They are however 20-9 under coming off a win. That total is 54. I will lean Florida -2 and also play under 54. The next game is Colorado heading to Northwestern and getting 3 points. The Buffs are 3-8 straight up and 4-7 against the spread versus The Big. I will lean Northwestern -3. The headline game of the weekend is #7 LSU heading to Oxford, Mississippi to play #8 Ole Miss. The Tigers are favored -2 1/2 after opening -3, but starting quarterback Sam Leavitt is now listed as doubtful, hence the line drop. The home team is 7-0 straight up and also 12-1 against the spread. The dog in this series is also 6-2 against the spread. Those stats and trends tell me to take the home dog. Take Ole Miss +2 1/2 in game that will have as many fans in the Grove as in the stadium.
So we will take a quick look at this week’s leans and plays. The leans are Syracuse/Pitt over 51 1/2; Miami -21; Florida -2; and Northwestern -3. The plays are North Carolina +3 1/2; Alabama -19 1/2; Louisville -1 1/2; Florida/Auburn Under 54; and Ole Miss +2 1/2. Good luck to all. Check back next week for Week 4.
simple man, simple ideas 
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