Week 1 is in the books. Murder was committed in Baton Rouge, a robbery took place in Ann Arbor, Imitating a football coach took place in Tallahassee, and as usual there are knee jerk overreactions in every part of the country. Some of them are humorous but fans are fans. Some to consider. LSU is not as good as they looked and Clemson, Michigan, and Florida State are not as bad as they looked. Auburn still doesn’t have a quarterback. Only 4 or 5 teams realistically have a legitimate shot at a title. Boise will easily be the Group Of 6 Team in The Playoffs. Remember it was just week 1. We don’t have to fire any coaches yet, it is hard to tell which teams will improve enough to upset a top team, and there was only 1 ranked versus ranked opponents. Does anyone want to bet those reactions will change as the year continues. I have stated before, it is a marathon, not a sprint. Good thing for me too. My plays are only 2 and 3 on the year now after going 2 and 3 last week. The leans are in worse shape as I went 1 and 3 last week and now stand at 1 and 4 for the year. Hopefully the information has been helpful and useful to you. Lets move on from the past and get on with looking at week 2 games and finding some winners. Strictly for entertainment purposes only.
There are 2 games tonight for us to look at. #23 Missouri travels to Kansas to renew the border war. Just noticing that Mizzou is a 5 point favorite, a ranked SEC team against a mid tier Big 12 team. Is Vegas missing something? Not usually. I delved into the stats and found conflicting information. Missouri is 4 and 0 straight up against Kansas and 3 and 1 against the spread versus the Big 12. Kansas is 6 and 0 against the spread as a home dog, but only 1-5-2 against the spread versus non conference opponents. I guess I can put a slight lean on Missouri-5 and hope The SEC is good. The other game is between 2 awful football teams if week 1 is any indication. Rutgers goes to Boston College and is getting 3 1/2 points. How can BC be favored over anyone with that offense? Well, because Rutgers got blasted at home as a 39 point favorite by U Mass. The stats and trends here side with the team that has been embarrassed all week. Rutgers is 16-6 against the spread versus non conference and also 5-1 straight up and against the spread versus the ACC. Boston College is a paltry 3-8 against the spread versus The Big. Holding my nose, I will lean Rutgers +3 1/2 just so I have something to watch tonight.
Saturday has some interesting and entertaining games on tap. Let us see what winners we can find, strictly for entertainment purposes only of course. The early slate has #10 Texas A&M laying 14 1/2 points hosting Arizona State. The Aggies are 1-9 against the spread versus non conference as well as only 9-18 against the spread at home, and The Sun Devils are 3-5 versus The SEC. I will lean Arizona State +14 1/2. The next game is #11 Oklahoma going to The Big House to face Michigan. The Sooners are laying -5. The visitors are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread versus The Big. Michigan is 2-7 against the spread versus The SEC. They are also 12-22 against the spread at home. Give me Oklahoma -5. Look into Wake Forest laying -3 at Purdue. Purdue is only 5-19 against the spread at home. Wake is 9-1 against the spread in the seasons first road game. Take Wake and lay the 3.
The mid day time slot has some questions that should get answered. #12 Alabama takes a young team and new quarterback on the road to face Kentucky. The Tide opened as a -10 1/2 point favorite, but at this moment it has dropped to -9 1/2. Hmmm. How about UNLV traveling to North Texas as a -3 point favorite. The Rebels stand at 1 and 1 on the year straight up and against the spread. Both of those games were 3 point lines also. I have been on them in each of the first 2 weeks. I have really good trends on them again. UNLV is 12-4 against the spread as a favorite, 24-9 against the spread versus non conference, and 22-9 against the spread on the road. Things to consider however; they just traveled to Hawaii last week which is a very long trip and now travel again, and they are playing their 3rd consecutive game that Vegas has predicted as close. I don’t like to ride one team for 3 weeks and I am leary, but I lean lay the 3 points.
The night games start with #1 Ohio State traveling to #5 Texas in the first Top 10 match up of the year. The home standing Longhorns are favored -1 1/2. Conflicting stats and trends are always hard to choose. The Buckeyes are 14-0 straight up and 11-2-1 against the spread in their season’s first road game. However the opponents haven’t been up to this quality very often. Texas has had this game circled and are ready. They are also 21-13-1 against the spread at home. I will take the home team and lay -1 1/2. Another excellent night match up is Memphis traveling to Boise. The Broncos are favored -9. The Blue Turf is a big advantage and many people are already anointing them as the Group of Six team in the playoffs. Boise looked really good at Oregon last week and again conflicting trends. Memphis is 10-2-2 against the spread versus non conference. Boise is 14-3-2 against the spread following a loss. This is a good game to just watch and enjoy. If you are looking for an upset that is off the charts, look late where #20 Utah host Arkansas. The Hogs are getting +13. They are 4-1 straight up and against the spread versus The Big 12. Utah is a tough place to play, but look for Arkansas to keep this game close with a chance to win it late.
There are some other games with good stats and trends, but most with bigger lines. So for this week, that is all I have. Leans are Missouri -5; Rutgers +3 1/2; Arizona State +14 1/2; and UNLV -3. The plays are Oklahoma -5; Wake Forest -3; Texas -1 1/2; and Arkansas+13. Good luck and check back on my blog next week
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