Wow a third of the season will be done after this week’s games. It goes by so quickly. The conference schedules really kick in this week. I had a better week last week going 3 and 2 on leans and 3 and 3 on plays. That makes the yearly totals 5 and 6 for leans, and 5 and 7 on plays. I broke my own rule of not laying over 15 ever twice and paid for it both times. I did however, hit the cover on all 3 of my upsets winning 2 of them outright. There will be more this week. Lets get right into the matchups for Week 4.
There is a game Thursday night with Liberty going to Coastal Carolina and favored by 2 1/2. I am not doing anything with this game but will let you know Coastal Carolina is 10-2 against the spread in this series for those interested. Strictly for entertainment purposes only.
There are a few games on Friday night worth looking into. Northwestern visits #5 Indiana. The Hoosiers are favored by 21 1/2. The visitor is only 4-11 straight up and 5-10 against the spread. Indy is also 14-6 against the spread versus The Big in their last 20 conference games. They are also an impressive 16-4 against the spread laying 20+ points. I will not break my rule again as I did last week and paid for it. It is just good information to have. Navy travels south to take on UAB. The Midshipmen are favored by -7. They are 16-9 against the spread as an away favorite while The Blazers are 3-9 against the spread as a dog. Navy is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread in this series. That is enough for me to lean Navy and lay the points. The Black Knights of the Hudson also go on the road Friday night. Army is favored -3 at Temple. This has been a one-sided series as Army is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread. Those stats force me to play Army -3. The late night game Friday is Clemson traveling across country to take on Cal. The Bears are favored -1. While Clemson has not looked good, they have won 2 straight. Cal has also won 2 straight, but are only 2-6 against the spread as a conference home favorite and 9-18-1 as a home favorite overall. I am very cautious with Clemson maybe looking ahead to hosting Miami next week. Still they can’t afford a slip up here if they want to compete for an ACC Title Game appearance. I will lean Clemson +1 very cautiously.
Moving on to Saturday morning games to ponder. Let’s start with #1 Texas heading to Neyland Stadium as a 4 1/2 point favorite over Tennessee. The Vols are only 7-13 versus ranked opponents. Tennessee fans will be ready and rowdy and have a legitimate home field advantage. Still they have not been tested nor faced a defense as good as the Longhorns. Give me Texas -4 1/2. Wake Forest travels to #16 Louisville and are getting 13 1/3 points. The Cardinals will try and avoid a let down after a huge win over SMU last week. The Demon Deacons were more than respectable last week against Miami, outplaying The Canes in the second half. The dog is 8-1 against the spread in this series. Therefore, I lean Wake Forest to score enough to cover the +13 1/2.
The mid day games find a couple of upset possibilities. The Big has a huge game with #17 Iowa going into The Big House to face #18 Michigan. The Wolverines are favored by -5 points. Michigan has been living on the edge this year, but remain unbeaten as does Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 1-4 straight up and 1-3-1 against the spread in Ann Arbor. They are also 14-3 as a single digit dog. Michigan is 16-8 against the spread versus ranked opponents. The play in this game is Under 39 1/2. Iowa is 20-6 Under as a dog and the Under in this series is 6-1. Take Under 39 1/2. The other important Big game during the mid day time slot is unbeaten and untested Nebraska going to play Michigan State and laying -5 1/2 points. Nebraska is only 3-9 against the spread as road favorites. The home team in this series is 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. The dog in this series is also 5-1. Give me Michigan State +5 1/2. There is another game in The Big conference that I am not playing, but I will throw a stat out for those who may be interested. #13 Penn State is hosting Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are favored by -10. Penn State is 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series. There are 3 important SEC games in this time frame. First #2 Georgia hosts Oklahoma and their putrid offense. Georgia is a -14 point favorite. The Sooner D is legit and can keep them in this game. Oklahoma is 7-0 against the spread as a conference road dog and a very impressive 11-6 against the spread versus ranked opponents. Take the Sooners +14 points. Vanderbilt comes off the most improbable wins and covers last week and now travel to Auburn. The home standing Tigers are favored by 9 1/2 points. Auburn actually trails Vandy in wins between these 2 teams 22 to 23 and The Commondores have won 4 of the last 6 straight up. Auburn is also only 11-30 straight up the last 5 years versus The SEC. I will lean very slightly toward Vanderbilt +9 1/2. The most entertaining mid day game should be #4 Ole Miss traveling to #21 Florida. The Gators are favored by 3 points. That’s right, Florida -3. I have zero stats or trends on this game, so I will pass. Just remember Ole Miss is coming off a massive high in beating LSU last week and now go on the road. The Rebels also rank 88th in the nation defending the run and Florida is going to run the ball. This will be just a highly entertaining game to watch.
Now for the night games. #19 Missouri visits #24 Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been maybe the biggest surprise team in college football this season. They are off to a 3-0 start including back to back road wins and covers against Minnesota and South Carolina. Now they come home and host unbeaten Missouri and are laying 6 1/2 points. The Tigers are 13 and 6 as a road dog in conference. State is 0-3 straight up and against the spread in this series. Mississippi State may also be looking ahead to Alabama next week. Either way, I like Missouri +6 1/2 and I think they win this game outright. The next game up is Texas A&M coming off a shocking upset at home losing to Kentucky. Now they travel to Baton Rouge and face a pissed off LSU team off their loss to Ole Miss. The home standing Tigers are favored by 9. The Aggies are 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread versus LSU. The line looks high, but the boys in the desert usually know what they are doing. I am still going to lean A&M + 9 in a loser is done game in The CFP picture. Now look at South Carolina going into Tuscaloosa to play #8 Alabama. I am not playing this game because I don’t like to pull against the team I cheer for. I will however put these stats out there for those that like information. Bama is 0-5 against the spread in this series as well as South Carolina is 9-1 on the road against the spread versus top 10 teams. There is also an off the radar game to look into. Middle Tennessee State goes to play Jax State as a 7 point dog. The home standing Gamecocks are 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread in conference home games. They are also 12-5 as a single digit favorite. Those are good numbers and I have ridden those stats a lot. Give me the Gamecocks -7. There is a game in The Big 12 that has become big for the winner if they want to get into the conversation for conference title contenders. Oklahoma State travels to West Virginia. The home Mountaineers are favored – 1 1/2. I can’t play it with conflicting stats, but if you like, go for it. Visitor is 4-0 in this series. West Virginia is 22-9 against the spread at home and Oklahoma State is 9-4 against the spread versus The Big 12. The last game of the weekend is a huge one. #12 Southern Cal hosts #20 Oregon. Lincoln Riley needs this win to justify the trust the administration and fan base have been waiting for but are now getting itchy. The Ducks need the win or their playoff chances are done with a second loss in 4 games. Oregon is a -3 point road favorite. Oregon is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in this series. They are also 14-7 as a road favorite. I have no choice but to play those strong stats, but my gut îis screaming So Cal. I will lean on what has won for throughout the years. Lean Oregon -3.
That is a total of 13 games, 6 leans and 7 plays. I know that is too many, but it is strictly for entertainment purposes only. 7 dogs, 5 favorites, and 1 Under. A quick listing. Leans: Navy -7; Clemson +1; Wake Forest+13 1/2; Vanderbilt+9 1/2; Texas A&M +9 1/2; and Oregon -3. The plays are as follows: Army -3; Texas -4 1/2; Michigan/Iowa Under 39 1/2; Michigan State + 5 1/2; Oklahoma+14; Missouri +6 1/2; and Jax State -7. Best of luck and check back next week for more college football.
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