The season is a marathon, not a sprint. There will be teams that look bad that are good and teams that should be good that are bad. Remember to not make rash judgements from the first week. I got off to a 0 and 1 start in both leans and picks. Lets jump into this weeks full slate of games. Hopefully you find the information useful, helpful, and entertaining. You decide if you fade or follow, strictly for entertainment purposes only.
Many games have lines that are big and for me just not playable, however if you like something, get your feet wet. I just rarely lay a lot of points. Here is some information, stats, and trends for Thursday Night’s Games. There are 2 ranked teams hosting cupcakes. #21 Utah versus Idaho and #25 Missouri hosting Arkansas Pine Bluff. Neither game has a line or really means much unless an unbelievable close game were to happen. There are a couple of games with 4+ touchdown lines. I am not playing them, but an interesting stat or two have shown up. U Mass, the only 0 and 12 team in all of D1 travels to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are laying 29 points. They are also 7 and 2 straight up and against the spread. U Mass is 0 and 9 straight up and 1-7-1 against the spread versus The Big. Illinois is a 28 point home favorite against UAB. The Illini are 9 and 1 straight up and 8 and 2 against the spread in their last 10 home opening games. UAB is 1 and 6 against the spread in road openers. They are also 0 and 9 straight up and 3 and 6 against the spread versus Power 4 opponents the last 9. Good stats and trends on both, but I just don’t lay that many points. Use this information as you will. There is another game that has Akron going to Wake Forest as a 24 point dog, but I found no trends or stats of any kind to share.
Moving to the best and only game I will be playing is Colorado going to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are favored by -6. They are also 9 and 1 straight up as well as 7 and 3 against the spread in openers. The Buffalos are 0 and 6 straight up and 1 and 5 against the spread versus The ACC. They are also only 13-25-1 against the spread as a road dog. Colorado does return 15 starters off a 3 and 9 team last year to Tech’s 9. Brent Key is a better coach than “Primetime” and the game at home gives me enough confidence to lay the 6.
Now for Friday’s games. I have searched and can’t find any games to play. I can put out some information for those of you that just want to play, strictly for entertainment purposes only, of course. # 7 Miami travels over 3,000 miles to play a conference game against Stanford. The Canes are favored by -24 1/2. Miami is only 9 and 12 against the spread as an away favorite; also only 12 and 20 against the spread in conference games. Stanford is a paltry 6 and 21 against the spread versus ranked opponents. They are 13-27 straight up and 14-25-1 against the spread at home. If you like one of these teams, good luck. The other is Fresno State going to what will be another empty Coliseum to play #14 Southern Cal. The Trojans 12-7-1 against the spread versus non conference including a loss last week. So Cal should have an advantage by playing last week. Fresno State is 5 and 1 against the spread versus Power 4 teams. I am passing on this one too. I will just be a spectator on Friday.
This takes us into some of the Saturday match ups to consider. Many of the ranked teams are playing “sisters of the poor” or the big boys are playing teams they should handle easily or at least have games with big lines. The early games have #6 Indiana as a 41 point favorite over North Texas, #13 Alabama a 28 1/2 point favorite over East Carolina and #20 Houston favored 20 1/2 over Oregon State. All 3 of these teams are the home team as well. I can give you a couple of stats on the last one. Houston is 9 and 3 against the spread versus non conference and The Beavers 7-19 against the spread on the road. Even the rest of the early schedule of unranked teams have some big lines. I am not playing anything early.
Now the mid day time frame has at least a couple of interesting contests. Take a look at #2 Oregon hosting Boise as a 24 1/2 point favorite. The Ducks are only 3 and 8 against the spread in opening games. Boise seems to be everybody’s team to capture the group of six playoff bid. They are also 3 and 1 straight up and 4 and 0 against the spread versus Oregon. Be careful because Ducks coach Lanning likes to run up scores. If I were to play this game and I will, but only as a lean taking Boise State+ the 24 1/2 points. The most competitive mid day game may well be Boston College at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are favored by -7 1/2. They are also 6 and 1 against the spread in openers. BC however is 8 and 4 against the spread in opening games and 30 and 20 against the spread as a single digit road dog. I am going to lean Boston College +7 1/2. The are 2 other games I looked at, but I just couldn’t find enough information to pull the trigger. Both should be highly entertaining games to watch. Tulane going to Duke and getting 9 1/2. The other was Baylor taking on Auburn at a neutral site affair in Atlanta. The Tigers are favored by -7 1/2.
The night games are intriguing. Lets start with UCLA heading up to Cal as a 2 1/2 point road favorite. Not bad for a 3-9 team last year. The dog in this series is 8 and 0 against the spread with 6 outright upsets. The Bears are also 36-19 as a dog. Also they are 11-4 over versus non conference teams. UCLA is a miserable 10-23 against the spread versus non conference, but they are 11-3 as a favorite. Both teams also have first year head coaches. This all adds up to leaning The Cal Bears +2 1/2. The headliner of the evening is Clemson going to Baton Rouge in a Tiger battle. The LSU Tigers are favored by 10 1/2. They are also just 1 and 5 straight up and against the spread in openers. Clemson is not any better at only 2 and 7 against the spread in opening games. There are not a ton of indicators on either side but Dabo has not forgot how to coach and new LSU head coach Lane Kiffin has had way too many distractions the last 2 weeks. I am going to play the most focused team. Take Clemson +10 1/2. Don’t be shocked if they win outright. The last game for Saturday is UNLV traveling over to Hawaii. The Rebels were disappointing last week in a home loss to Memphis. The road favored UNLV squad this week will find the Hawaii defense more inviting. The line is UNLV -3. They are 11 and 3 against the spread as a road favorite, 24-8 against the spread versus non conference opponents and 23 and 9 against the spread on the road overall. The Rainbow Warriors are 16 -2-2 as a conference home dog, however most of those lines were larger than 3. For the second week in a row, I am taking UNLV and looking for a win this week laying the 3.
Now for Sunday’s games. Yes this week only college football replaces the NFL. We have # 5 Notre Dame as a 20 1/2 point favorite over Wisconsin in Green Bay. The Irish are poised to go all the way this year. They are 11-2 against the spread in neutral site games. The Badgers will be fighting all year to save Coach Fickell’s job. I think they will have to fight harder next week, but I just don’t lay that many points. Another game with a lot of points is #17 Washington hosting Washington State in The Apple Cup Game. This rivalry game has moved to the front of the schedule because these 2 teams are in different conferences. The home standing Huskies are a 23 1/2 point favorites. They are also 13 and 3 straight up and 11 and 5 against the spread versus State in the last 16 meetings. The Huskies are also 9-2 as home favorites. I know who I like but will not lay that many points. The headliner game and the only game all weekend that features ranked team versus ranked team. #9 Ole Miss faces #24 Louisville in Nashville, Tennessee. The Rebels are favored -6 1/2. The Rebels are 5 and 0 straight up and 4 and 1 against the spread in openers. They are 5 and 1 against The ACC; 12-3 against the spread versus non conference teams. Louisville is 4 and 8 against the spread versus The SEC. That all adds up to me taking Ole Miss -6 1/2 points.
Now to close out Labor Day Weekend on Monday Night. SMU travels to Florida State. The visiting Mustangs are favored by 2 1/2. The Seminoles played last week and they may help them, but only if they play better. They are a home dog and upset Alabama in this kind of spot last year. They are 2 and 4 straight up and 1 and 5 against the spread in conference openers. SMU is 21 and 13 against the spread on the road. Lean SMU and lay the 2 1/2.
That is this week’s information, stats, trends, as well as leans and picks. All of this is strictly for entertainment purposes only. A quick review of the leans: Boise State +24 1/2, Boston College+7 1/2, Cal +2 1/2, and SMU -2 1/2. The plays are: Georgia Tech -6, Clemson +10 1/2, UNLV -3, and Ole Miss -6 1/2.
Good luck to all of us. Check back here next week for week 2.
simple man, simple ideas 
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