The weekend has arrived with a smorgasbord of outstanding games. I look for at least 2 if not all 3 remaining unbeaten teams to go down. This may be the best football weekend all year. The College Football Playoff Committee put out their first rankings and several surprises stood out. Will it stand, or will they switch the criteria on how the teams are viewed? Time will tell starting with this week’s games. Strictly for entertainment purposes only, let’s get into the games.
There could be some very good games I don’t talk about or mention. It is because I simply don’t have any trends, stats, or information on those games. The first game up tonight is Virginia Tech going to face SMU. The Mustangs are favored by -6 points at home. They are 24-16 against the spread in conference play including 3-3 this year. Virginia Tech is only 7-14 as a single digit dog including 1-0 this year. It is not a lot of information, but I am going to lean SMU -6. The next game up is a Big contest with Nebraska traveling to Illinois as a -4 1/2 point favorite. The hard luck Huskers are coming off 3 consecutive losses where they had the lead with 10 minutes to go in the game. The visitor is this series is 3-0 straight up and against the spread. The dog in this series is 7-1 against the spread. Nebraska is only 5-9 against the spread as a road favorite. The Illini are 13-7 against the spread as a single digit home dog. Some conflicting stats, but I am going to lean Illinois +4 1/2. I don’t have any information to share on the other 3 games.
Now for Saturday morning. First game up is The Holy War with #3 undefeated Utah hosting #9 once beaten BYU. The Utes are favored by -5 points. Utah has been good at home as they are 37-20 against the spread including 4-0 this year. BYU is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in this series. The trend that seals this pick is the dog is 19-6 with 21 of those 25 games being decided by single digits. Give me BYU +5 and the outright upset. The next game up is unbeaten #8 UCLA traveling cross country to Minnesota. The Bruins are favored by -5 points. The Gophers are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in this series. They are also 18-14-1 against the spread at home in conference games including 2-0 this year. Since Minny struggles to run the ball and UCLA plays tough defense, this game is only a lean. The second undefeated team goes down. Lean Minnesota +5. Still in the early time slot, we have #7 Texas traveling to #18 Missouri. The Longhorns are favored by – 2 1/2. Texas can’t run the ball as they have the 105th rushing attack out of 138 FBS teams. Texas is only 1-7 in conference road games including 0-1 this year. The Horns also have not left the state of Texas since September and Columbia is a tough place to play. The Tigers are 24-2 straight up at home including 4-0 this year and I am getting points. The wrong team is favored in this spot. Give me Missouri + 2 1/2. The next game has Arkansas going to Auburn. The Tigers are favored by – 11 points. That seems like a lot of points for a team that is only 12-34 straight up in recent conference games. The visitor in this series is also 7-0 straight up 6-1 against the spread. The Hogs are also 15-7 against the spread on the road in games including 1-2 this year. While those trends and stats tend to favor Arkansas, I just cant trust one of the 2 worst teams in the SEC. I will however, lean Over 53. The Over has hit 6 of the last 7 in this series. There are 2 more games in the morning time period that I am not playing but will quickly share the information I have. If you like somebody, jump on them. Florida State without fired Coach Norvell goes to Boston College as a -6 1/2 point favorite. The dog in this series is 6-1 against the spread. There is also Texas A&M going to perhaps the hottest team in college football the last month in South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a -7 point favorite. The Aggies are only 12-21 against the spread under Coach Elko including 4-3 this year.
The mid day games has 2 with very solid trends and stats to consider. #23 Oregon travels to a wounded #12 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are favored by -7 1/2. The Ducks are already out of the playoffs and if Ohio State loses, they are done as well. The Buckeyes are only 3-7 against the spread following a loss including 0-1 this season. They are 21-12-1 against the spread versus the Big including 2-3 this year. The Ducks have also won and covered the last 3 regular season games in this series. Oregon is playing much better in recent weeks and there are a lot of ways to stay within the line here. I will take Oregon +7 1/2. The next game has a surprise #5 Alabama going to Baton Rouge to play #14 LSU with the host being favored by -6. This is one of the very few teams The Tigers do not have a home field advantage against. The Tide have won more games in Baton Rouge than LSU has in the entire series. The joke of “Bryant Denny West” seems real. Alabama is 30-10-3 straight up in Tiger Stadium. They are also 13-2 straight up and 10-5 against the spread the last 15 games here. Alabama is also 6-2 against the spread as a single digit dog. The Tigers are only 1-6 straight up and 2-5 against the spread the last 7 in this series. LSU has looked much better in recent weeks and seem to be peaking as the season goes on. The loser is in all likelihood finished in the playoff hunt. Alabama is getting healthier and the stats all say Alabama. I want to make sure I never play with my heart. Still, I am taking The Tide +6.
The night games get started with the headliner of the week. Unbeaten #1 Miami goes to South Bend for a massive game against #12 once beaten Notre Dame. The Irish are favored by -7 1/2. That seems like a big line deficit for a top ranked team. Miami is 7-2 against the spread as a dog. They are also only 12-13 against the spread as a road team including 2-2 this year. The Irish are using a huge revenge factor after losing to The Canes last year and missing the playoffs. Since they only have one loss now and still ranked #12, a loss here and they stand a good chance of missing out this year as well. Notre Dame is 13-4-2 against the spread versus ranked teams at home. They are also 31-9-1 against the spread in single digit spread games. I am not thrilled with it, but the information says do it. I will lean Notre Dame -7 1/2. The Big has an important match up with #19 Iowa traveling to Northwestern. The home Wildcats are favored by -2 1/2. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in this series. They are also 16-4 against the spread as a single digit dog including 2-1 this year. I will take Iowa +2 1/2. Another huge game in the night time frame to consider is #6 Kentucky traveling to Knoxville to take on #13 Tennessee as a -6 1/2 point dog. The vols are pissed over their first ranking in the CFP rankings. The Vols are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in this series. They are also 0-5 against the spread off a bye. Kentucky is 40-25-1 against the spread as a dog including 4-1 this year. Just keep doubting. I will take the side no one likes. Take Kentucky + 6 1/2. The final game of the night to look at is #2 Georgia going to #10 Ole Miss. The dogs are favored by -3 1/2. The only stat I have is The Rebels are 38-3 straight up at home. It is hard to trust The Ole Miss run defense, but Trinidad Chambliss can make a lot of things happen. A very slight lean to Ole Miss + 3 1/2.
That is it for this week. I have zero remaining unbeaten teams left. A quick review of this week’s leans and picks. Leans: Miami Ohio -6 1/2; UMass -3; SMU -6; Minnesota +5; Arkansas/Auburn Over 53; Notre Dame -7 1/2; and Ole Miss +3 1/2. The plays: Central Michigan +1; BYU +5; Missouri +2 1/2; Oregon +7 1/2; Alabama +6; Iowa +2 1/2; and Kentucky +6 1/2. Good luck to us all. Check back next week for more college football.
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