The only sure bets this week is the upsets will continue. So strictly for entertainment purposes only, let’s look at the games.
Tonight has 3 games but none of the teams are ranked. The first game is an American Conference contest with Tulane going to Charlotte as a -8 point favorite. Charlotte comes off their first win of the year. They are 4-19 against the spread as a home dog including 0-8 in the last 2 years. Tulane is 11-5-1 as a road favorite. I am going to give a slight lean to The Green Wave and lay the -8 points. The best game of the evening is Baylor (after just firing Coach Aranda) traveling to Central Florida as a -1 1/2 point favorite in a Big 12 contest. ???? Hm why are The Bears favored? Central Florida is fresh off their upset of then #2 BYU. Can they get back up again? Does being at home help them? There are too many questions and I have zero information on this game. I hate to pass, but I have to. The other Mac Action game of Kent State going to Sacramento State. I will wait until the mid week games from this conference.
Now let’s move to Saturday morning’s games. The #22 Arizona Wildcats travel to play #13 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders suffered their first loss last week in an upset at Cincinnati. Now they return home to play a team that is playing really good football right now. Texas Tech is a 3 1/2 point favorite. They are also 17-8-1 against the spread as a home favorite including 2-1 this year. Throw in Arizona is 20-32 as a road team including 1-2 this year. I will take Tech and lay the 3 1/2. Now head to Iowa where the Hawkeyes host #25 Wisconsin fresh off their upset of Southern Cal. Iowa is favored by -2 1/2 points. Iowa is 5-1 straight up and against the spread in this series and also 13-4-1 as a home favorite less than 3. I am taking Iowa -2 1/2. The next early game has a much improved Boston College team going to Duke and getting + 7 1/2. BC is 32-21-1 as a single digit dog including 2-0 this year. I am going to lean taking The Eagles +7 1/2 is this one. The final morning game is a Big match up between Illinois off their upset of Oregon going Maryland as a -2 1/2 point favorite. Maryland is in complete disarray having lost 5 straight and firing Coach Loxley. I know teams going on the road after upsetting someone at home is not usually good. However, Illinois is 19-7 against the spread on the road including 2-0 this year. Maryland is 0-11 straight up and 2-9 against the spread following a bye. Those trends and stats tell me to take another favorite. I am playing Illinois -2 1/2. There is a game in the SEC I am not playing mostly because I have very little information on it. #12 Ole Miss host Auburn. The line opened as The Rebels a -14 point favorite and that line is now down to -11 1/2. Have that many people put that much money on Auburn or has the line adjusted due to the number of injuries Ole Miss has. Ole Miss also has a huge game with Georgia next week. Trap game? Maybe, but I am passing on this game.
The mid day slate has some important games as well. #3 Georgia plays #17 Florida in Atlanta while Jacksonville’s stadium is being worked on. The Bulldogs are favored by -11 1/2. I have no information to share and so I am passing. Staying in the SEC red hot South Carolina fresh off back to back upsets of Florida and Tennessee now heads to Oklahoma as a 4 point dog. The Sooners are also playing better and this should be a very good and close game. The Gamecocks are 19-13 against the spread as a dog including 2-1 this year. Give me South Carolina plus the 4 points in a lean. #6 Utah comes to Nippert Stadium to play Cincinnati as a -7 point favorite. The Bearcats are fresh off their upset of previously unbeaten Texas Tech. Utah had a very physical and emotional come from behind win over Houston and face BYU next week in “The Holy War.” Can you say classic trap game? Add in that the Utes are only 5-11 against the spread as a conference road favorite including 0-2 this year. Cincinnati is also 5-2-1 as a conference single digit dog at home including 2-1 this year. I will take Cincinnati +7. There is a Big game I am not playing because it is a 20 point line, but I will share the information I have. #4 Indiana hosts Minnesota. The Hoosiers are a -20 1/2 point favorite. They are also 18-6 against the spread when they lay 20+ including 2-2 this year. Minnesota is 0-3 against the spread as a dog getting 20+. The home team is also 10-3 against the spread in this series. I am not playing, but if I did, I would go with my stats.
The night games have 5 games to look at with solid information. First up is an ACC game. Clemson travels to Florida State as a -7 point dog. The Tigers are 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread as well as 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in Tallahassee. The favorite in this series is 7-1 against the spread. Clemson has a terrible offense but I think their defense keeps this one close. Lean Clemson +7. Staying in the ACC. #1 Miami goes to North Carolina as a -14 point favorite. Keep in mind, The Canes have a massive game at Notre Dame next week. Where do you think their focus is? Add in these stats. The dog in this series is 14-5 against the spread. Miami is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in this series. The Canes are 14-22 against the spread in conference games including 2-2 this year. I don’t think the Heels can pull a shocker, but don’t think it can’t happen. I am playing North Carolina +14. #23 Missouri goes to Arkansas off a bye week as a -10 point favorite. The Tigers are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in this series. Arkansas is only 1-9 straight up off a bye. Missouri should be able to run the ball at will. I will take Missouri -10. The next game is from The American Conference where Army travels to Memphis. The host Tigers are favored by -7 points. On paper, Memphis is more physical, bigger, stronger, faster, and the game looks like a mismatch. They are also 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in this series. Ah, but games are not played on paper. Army is 10-3 straight up and 11-2 against the spread on the road including 2-1 in both categories this year. I will take The Cadets +7. The final game comes from Los Angeles where Southern Cal host #2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are favored by -6 1/2 off a bye week, but also without their starting quarterback. The Trojans limp home off another miserable loss and performance east of The Mississippi River at Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are 7-9 against the spread coming off a bye week. Lincoln Riley’s seat is heating up and he needs this game badly. I believe a healthy Jaden Maiava is going to look really good and spring the upset on the wounded Buckeyes. I will take So Cal + 6 1/2.
Well that is a lot of picks, maybe too many, but I go where the information leads me. Here are the leans for review: Western Kentucky -2; North Texas -13 1/2; Tulane -8; Boston College +7 1/2; South Carolina +4; and Clemson +7. The plays are : Jax State -3; Texas Tech -3 1/2; Iowa -2 1/2; Illinois -2 1/2; Cincinnati +7; North Carolina +14; Missouri -10; Army +7; and Southern Cal +6 1/2. Good luck to all. Check back next week and we will discuss week 10.
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