Last week was a ho hum week for my offerings as I went a horrible 1 and 4 on leans, but 4-1-1 on plays. I am glad it was not the other way around. Plays are stronger than leans and I go a little heavier on those picks. Strictly for entertainment purposes only. I do sincerely hope the information is useful. The current records for the year stand at 10 and 12 on leans and 13-11-1 on plays.
This week begins football every day from now until after Thanksgiving. College on Tuesday through Saturday and NFL on Sundays and Mondays and Thursdays as well. I watch the pros but rarely play them. The schedule makes it hard to assemble the trends and stats, not to mention line moves and injury reports by Tuesday. Therefore, please check this blog on Tuesday afternoons for early week action and again on Fridays for the weekend’s games.
The list of undefeated teams has dwindled down to only 15 teams with 7 falling last weekend. Those remaining teams are #1 Texas, #2 Georgia, #3 Notre Dame, #4 Miami, #6 Alabama, #7 Indiana, #8 BYU, #11 Texas Tech, #12 Utah, #21 UCLA, #25 Pittsburgh, and unranked Nebraska, Duke, James Madison, and North Dakota State. 4 of those teams meet Saturday. #2 Georgia at #6 Alabama and #7 Indiana at Nebraska. The list will continue to decrease each week. Lets get into this week’s early games. There are 7 games Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. None of these games have ranked teams involved nor any marque match ups, but hey it is college football. We all love to watch it anyway. So, let’s see if we can find some trends or stats to make a game or two more interesting.
Tuesday night kicks off the week with a Sun Belt game with Southern Miss going to Troy where Troy is favored by -11. The Trojans are 15-5 against the spread as conference favorites. They have also won and covered 5 straight in this series with the average margin of victory being 18 points. Throw in Southern Miss is 7-19 against the spread as a dog including 1-2 this year. The stats are good and since it is on I will lean Troy -11.
This brings us to 2 games on Wednesday, both CUSA games. I have conflicting trends and stats, so I am not playing either game, but here is the information. If you like it, go for it. I will watch some of these and some baseball. Jax State travels to Kennesaw State and are a -3 point road favorite. The Owls are 5-1 against the spread as a home dog. Jax State 13-5 as a single digit favorite including 1-0 this year. They are also 14-7 as a conference road favorite. The other game is New Mexico State going cross country to FIU where they are +6 1/2 point dogs. New Mex is 6-3 against the spread as single digit conference dogs. Florida International is 6-3 against the spread as a home favorite. If you play either of these games, best of luck.
Thursday night games gives us 2 more CUSA tilts, another Sun Belt game and an AAC battle. I have very little information to offer on any of these contests, but here you go. Liberty hosts Sam Houston State as a 13 1/2 point favorite. Sam Houston is 0-6 against the spread off a bye week. The other CUSA game has a 1 and 3 Missouri State going to Western Kentucky, a 1and 4 team. Western is 9-2 against the spread in this series. I am passing on these 2 games and you should too. The Sun Belt tilt looks to be a competitive game if not entertaining. South Alabama travels to Arkansas State. The home standing Red Wolves are favored by -1 1/2. They are also 15-7 against the spread as a conference favorite. Just to have a reason to watch, I will lean slightly to Arkansas State -1 1/2. The AAC game will play what should be a very good football game. South Florida goes to San Antonio to face UTSA. The Roadrunners are favored by -7 over the Bulls. South Florida is 7-3 against the spread as a conference road dog including 1-1 this year. UTSA is 21 and 1 straight up at home in conference games. They looked very ragged last week in beating Rice on the road while South Florida has looked weak the last two weeks eeking a win over Bowling Green and losing to Temple. That is expected since South Florida lost 14 players to Auburn in the portal when Coach Golesh left. I will take UTSA at home -7.
Finally, here comes Friday night with some pretty good games to look at. First in the ACC, we have Florida State off their thrashing of Virginia traveling to a disappointing Louisville team. No one thought The Cardinals would have 3 losses already this year. They lost to Ole Miss by 7, Wake Forest by 3, and North Carolina State by 3. They beat SMU by 10. The reason is the defense is absolutely disgusting. If any team that is 2-3 and thought they were in the national picture can be turned around, it is Coach Jeff Brohm. I have good trends on this game. Louisville is favored by -4. The favorite in this series is 5-0 straight up and against the spread. The Cards are also 22-16 against the spread as a home favorite. Florida State is a terrible 1-11 against the spread on the road. I think Louisville gets right, but I am passing on this game until I am sure they have. #20 Iowa goes on the road after back to back Big Conference games against Michigan and Ohio State going 1 and 1. They travel to Seattle, Washington to face a Huskies team coming off back to back losses to Minnesota by 3 and Southern Cal by 5. Washington is favored by -3. The Huskies are 8 and 3 as a home favorite including 0-1 this year. Iowa is 14-3 as a single digit dog including 1 and 0 this year. The Hawkeyes are also 21-6-1 to the Under when they are a dog including 1-0-1 this year. It seems like a big ask to me for Iowa to come off their last 2 games and go across country on a short week. The Under is 41 1/2. I know who I like but I just can’t pull the trigger. Good luck if you play anyone in this game, strictly for entertainment purposes only, of course. There is a Mountain West game I will play. Wyoming goes to San Jose State as a 6 point dog. The home team in this series is 5 and 1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. I will lean San Jose State – 6. The last game Friday night is Iowa State going into Provo, Utah for a date with #8 BYU. The Cougars are favored by -10. Iowa State is 9-13 as a conference road dog. All of those stats were compiled under Coach Matt Campbell before he left to take the Penn State job taking most of the starters with him. BYU is 10-4 against the spread as a conference home favorite including 1-0 this year. They are very good on defense and Bachmeier is a legit quarterback. If BYU doesn’t get caught looking ahead to Notre Dame next week, they should handle this Cyclone team. Give me BYU -10.
That is 3 leans and 2 plays for the early week action. My only concern, it is all favorites. A review shows leans of Troy -11, Arkansas State -1 1/2, and San Jose State -6. The 2 plays are UTSA -7, and BYU -10. Good luck and check back here Friday for the best Saturday has to offer.
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