Well 13 undefeated teams lost last weekend which only leaves 22 in all of FBS. There will be at least 4 that lose this weekend as 8 of those teams face off. I am willing to say there will be more than that with upsets coming. Last week was a little better going 4-2 on leans bringing the yearly total 9 and 8. The plays ended last week at 4-3 for a total of 9-10 for the season. So after a dreadful opening 2 weeks, the system of stats and trends are coming back around. Now, let’s get into this week’s games, strictly for entertainment purposes only.
The first look at Thursday’s games will make you want to puke. Both games are either bad or mediocre teams at best. Diving a little deeper though for the hard core; ” if I have to watch one, I may as well bet one.” Look into Western Kentucky getting +2 1/2 traveling to New Mexico State where a pair of 1 and 3 CUSA teams meet. The teams may be bad, but there are some solid trends to consider. Western Kentucky is 16-5 straight up on the road in conference games and also 13-1 against the spread as a dog of 3 or less. New Mexico State is 0-4 against the spread as a favorite. My best advice is to wait until Friday to play, but holding my nose, I lean Western Kentucky taking +2 1/2.
Now Friday night hames, there is a good ACC match up between 2 of those unbeaten teams with Pittsburgh going to Blacksburg, Virginia to play Virginia Tech. The home standing Hokies are favored -3 1/2. Neither team is ranked this week, but the winner will be next week. Tech is 10-3 straight up and against the spread in this series. Pitt is also only 2-10 against the spread as a single digit dog in conference play. I look for the Hokies to continue their undefeated season for first year coach, James Franklin. I will take Virginia Tech and lay the -3 1/2 points. There is also a Big Conference game between Penn State going to Northwestern. The Nittany Lions are favored by – 3. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season last week. Penn State lost it’s homecoming game as a 10 point favorite to Wisconsin, while Northwestern went on the road as a 21 point dog and scared the life out of Indiana. I don’t find any stats or trends on this tilt, but don’t be surprised if the honeymoon with new coach Matt Campbell is over in Happy Valley. Not messing with this game myself, but if you like a side, best of luck to you.
Now, the early games for Saturday morning. #7 unbeaten Alabama travels to unbeaten #16 Mississippi State. The Tide is favored by -6. While the experts have Bama getting upset, and they could get bitten if they look ahead to Georgia the following week. However, take a good look at the trends and stats in this series. Alabama is 16-0 straight up and 12-4 against the spread. The line has mostly been well above this 6 point spread. Mississippi State is also only 4-15-2 against the spread as a home dog. State is much improved this season and quarterback KaMario Taylor is 100% legit. I think the Bulldogs keep it close for 2 1/2 quarters, but look for Alabama to pull away late. I don’t play with my heart, so based on the trends play Alabama -6. The next game is a Big 12 contest with Central Florida going to Houston where The Cougars are favored -13. The home team is 0-8-1 in this series. Throw in the stat that Houston is only 2-9 against the spread in conference home games. Take Central Florida +13. Take a look at Michigan traveling to Minnesota where the Wolverines are favored by -5 1/2. The offense for both teams is less than exciting and mostly punchless. Michigan is coming off a last play loss to Iowa in a game they let get away. The Wolves are 7-1 against the spread in this series as well as 7-3 straight up and against the spread the week prior to a bye. The Gophers are tough at home, but I am going to lean the better talent less the touchdown spread. Lean Michigan -5 1/2. There is a game I am not playing because the spread is 21 1/2. I will however put out this information. #3 Notre Dame goes to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina. The Irish are 18-3 straight up and 16-5 against the spread versus The ACC. If you like a side, jump on board
The mid day time slot has another pair of the unbeatens squaring off with #5 Ohio State traveling to #14 Iowa. The Buckeyes are a -14 1/2 favorite. The Iowa defense is very good, but they are facing a team with elite skill position players at every position. This series is tied at 2-2 straight up and The Bucks are 1-2-1 against the spread the last 4 games. They are also 19-10-1 against the spread versus The Big Conference. I doubt Iowa can manage enough points to win outright, but I do think their defense and the crowd at Kinnick Stadium keeps this one within the spread. Lean Iowa +14 1/2. There is another game in The Big where unbeaten and unranked Nebraska is hosting a bad Maryland team. The Cornhuskers are a 14 point favorite. They are 8-0 as a double digit favorite and Maryland is 8-24-1 as a road dog. That is enough for me to play Nebraska -14. There is an important SEC game where Auburn travels to Neyland Stadium to take on #17 Tennessee. The Vols are favored by -7. It is important because the loser will have 2 conference losses and be dead in the water for a conference title. Auburn could win this game if they can stop the run and make Tennessee beat them passing the ball. The Tigers are only 11-21 against the spread versus The SEC the last 5 years including 0-2 this year. Until they prove otherwise, I lean that trend continues. Lean Tennessee -7. There is another top SEC tilt with unbeaten #8 Florida going to #25 Missouri as a 5 1/2 point favorite. The Gators have arrived early under new Coach John Sumrall. Missouri let a road game slip away last week in Starkville. The stats and trends say Missouri is 22-2 straight up at home, but only 1-21 against the spread versus Top 10 SEC teams. Florida is also only 6-14 against the spread on the road. I know who I like, but can’t play conflicting stats like that. Just a good game to watch. One last mid day game to look at. Louisville heads to North Carolina State as a -3 1/2 point favorite. The Cardinals have already lost 2 games by a total of 10 points. Their offense is good but you can smell their defense from wherever you are. Louisville is 10-4 to the Over as a road favorite. North Carolina State can’t stop anyone either. Even though The Wolfpack is 9-2 against the spread as a home dog, I can’t trust them to stop Louisville. The Over 59 here is the play. There is 1 last mid day game to consider. #3 unbeaten Miami travels to South Carolina to play Clemson. The Tigers have won 3 straight since that beat down in Baton Rouge to open the season. The line is Miami -17. I have conflicting information on this game. Miami is only 6-11 against the spread in conference road games. Clemson is 2-8 against the spread before a bye week. I will pass, but good luck to those who pick a side on this game.
The night slate is slim this week. Arkansas travels to reeling Texas A&M, where The Aggies have lost 2 straight conference games ending their title hopes. Texas A&M are favored by -14. This game is an old Southwest Conference rivalry game. Texas A&M is 13-1 straight up but only 1-8 against the spread in this series. They are also only 10-20 against the spread including 2-2 this year. Very cautiously, I lean Arkansas +14. The only other game to consider is #10 BYU traveling to Fort Worth to play TCU. The Cougars are favored by -7. The Horned Frogs are 10-5 against the spread following a straight up loss. BYU is 5-2 straight up, but only 2-5 against the spread in this series. I will take TCU +7 at home. Gig ‘ em.
That is the games for Week 5. Strictly for entertainment purposes only I have 5 leans, and 6 plays. Those consists of 5 favorites, 5 dogs, and 1 over. A quick review of the Leans: Western Kentucky+2 1/2; Michigan -5 1/2; Iowa +14 1/2; Tennessee -7; and Arkansas +14. The plays are: Virginia Tech -3 1/2; Alabama -6; Central Florida +13; Nebraska -14; Over 59 in the Louisville/ North Carolina State game; and TCU +7. Good luck to everyone. Check back on this blog next week.
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