Next Up The ACC and The Big 12

   The season is almost among us. Lets preview the next 2 Power 4 conferences. These 2 are lagging behind in dollars earned by conference members as well as teams getting into the 12 Team Playoffs. Why? Simple, talent and the strength of their leagues just don’t stack up to The SEC and The Big. This almost cost The ACC any team getting in, but Miami squeaked in. The Canes made it all the way to the Title Game but was almost left out. Virginia and Duke went to The ACC Conference Championship Game. Virginia went 10-3 in the regular season and Duke went 7 and 5. When Duke beat Virginia in that game, it became time to sweat for The ACC. Would the committee take a 5 loss conference champion, accept a 10-2 non conference team like Miami with a lone impressive win against Notre Dame, or take the Irish leave this league without a representative in the playoffs. Miami made it in over Notre Dame who had strength of schedule issues of their own. Anyway, Miami got in and ended the “conference championships have to matter” group screaming.

   History is past, so lets turn to this years ACC race and preview. The media has their predictions and again I am not predicting an order of finish but just giving information. The league may or may not be any better, but the media likes Miami, SMU, Clemson, and Louisville as the favorites. The next group in this 17 team league is Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Georgia Tech. They are followed closely by Florida State and Duke. The last 6 teams will again struggle to get to 6 wins and a bowl. They are North Carolina with second year head coaching experiment, Bill Belichick. Wake Forest, California, Syracuse, Stanford, and Boston College.

   This is another conference that has teams scattered from coast to coast for some unknown and asinine reason. The Miami Hurricanes open their season on such a trip going out to Palo Alto to face Stanford. Their next 3 games are cupcakes so the jet lag shouldn’t hurt them. They also travel to Clemson and to Notre Dame. Miami has never even played in the Conference Championship Game, but maybe this year. The SMU Mustangs have road games at Florida State, a tough one at Louisville, before closing at Notre Dame, and cross country at Stanford. They dodge both Miami and Clemson. Speaking of Clemson. They are still a good football team just not as dominant. Dabo has not forgotten how to coach, he just misread how the NIL and transfer portal works. He is slowly catching up. The Tigers schedule this year has an opener at LSU before a couple of easy games. The trip out to Cal could be tricky only because it is the week before they host Miami. After the bye week the schedule makers smiled on them. They go to Florida State, to Syracuse, and to Duke and host Georgia Tech, all look like winnable games. The Louisville Cardinals are my surprise team in this league. The schedule alone is made to make the conference title game. No Miami, no Clemson, and they host SMU and don’t have a west coast trip to navigate.

   Moving on, lets turn to Pittsburgh. The schedule makers also did this team a favor. They open with what should be a 4 and 0 start before traveling to Virginia Tech. They do have to go on the road at Miami, and Louisville later in the year. Tony Elliott paid huge dividends in his 4th season last year taking his Virginia team to a 10-2 regular season, a conference title game birth and a breath from a playoff birth, and a bowl win for an outstanding 11 and 3 year. That will be a tall task to duplicate this year. I suppose anything is possible and the overall strength of the conference helps. They do go to SMU, Florida State, and Virginia Tech. No Clemson and no Miami. The Virginia Tech Hokies welcome in new coach, James Franklin. He is a very good coach, he just never got Penn State over the hump. This is the best coach since Frank Beamer retired and there is plenty of excitement around the campus this year. The bad news for his first year is they catch Clemson, SMU and Miami all on the road. They host Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Virginia. This team will be better under Coach Franklin, but the record may not show it this season. The North Carolina State Wolfpack are always a tough out and will be again. They might even spring an upset but the 8 or 9 win seems about as far as this team can go. They open at Virginia, travel out west to Stanford, go to Florida State and host Louisville. The next team in this group is The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Brent Key has his 5th class coming up. This team plays to their coaches personality as much as any team in the country, that is with pure grit. They play everybody tough and this season will be no exception. If he can find a replacement for all everything quarterback Haines King, then another 9 win season is very possible. There west coast trip is followed by a bye week. They go to Virginia Tech, to Pitt, to Clemson and to arch rival Georgia.

   Florida State and Duke are the next teams to preview. The Seminoles have back to back losing seasons and the fan base is hunting scalps. They host SMU on Labor Day Night, and travel to Alabama for a game the Tide has circled. If that is a 1 and 2 start to the season with road games still looming at Louisville, at Miami and at Pittsburgh; I would bet Coach Mike Norvell will have been relieved of his duties before the season ending Florida rivalry. Duke heads into the year as the defending champions of The ACC. If the Devils get near that plateau again Coach Manny Diaz will have a lifetime contract. They travel to Georgia Tech, to Virginia, to North Carolina State, to Miami, and to Wake Forest.

   The last 6 teams in this league will all struggle just to teach 6 wins (even in a weak conference) and a bowl game. North Carolina goes to Ireland to play TCU, travel to Clemson, to Pitt, as well as host Notre Dame, Miami, and Louisville. Belichick may be done. Same outlook for Wake Forest and second year head man, Jake Dickery who surprised everyone last year going 9 and 4. Doubt The Demons repeat that. California and Stanford have new head coaches for a reason. Tosh Lupoi and Tavita Pritchard will be trying to build in year 1 and not likely to make any noise. Syracuse and Boston College are just bad football teams as both found a way to win 1 conference game each. The outlook for any more this year would be a positive.

   The last Power 4 conference to look at is The Big 12. While this conference is mostly weak from top to bottom, it remains one of the most competitive when their top plays their top, middle versus middle and bottom against bottom.  The media shakes out this way. Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah is the top of the class. The second tier consists of Houston, TCU, and Arizona. Followed by UCF, Kansas State, Arizona State, Baylor, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. The bottom 4 of the conference will really have to scratch to get to 6 wins and a bowl.

   Welcome to the NIL and transfer portal Texas Tech. They parlayed a 40 million dollar roster into a top 5 regular season finish and a playoff birth. The conference they play in is weak and another strong showing is in the offing, if The Red Raiders can find a quarterback to replace troubled star Brendan Sorsby. They still have 15 starters off of that team returning. They host Houston early in the year and host TCU to end the season. A loss anywhere in between would be a big upset. The BYU Cougars just missed the playoffs when they lost the conference title game to Texas Tech. This team also lost to the Red Raiders in the regular season and beat everybody else for a 12 win season. However the league appears to be a one bid league. This year BYU travels to TCU, to Utah, and host Notre Dame in a schedule upgrade. It is possible to match last year, but it looks doubtful from here. Utah legendary coach Kyle Whittingham packed his bags for Ann Arbor, and long time assistant Morgan Scalley takes over. He takes over a good team but with only 8 starters back, the media may have his first team overranked. The Utes do get a schedule break in that their toughest games are at home. They host Houston, BYU, and TCU, but do go to West Virginia.

   The second tier teams is where my 2 surprise teams reside and I really believe one of these teams can win the league championship. First lets look at The Houston Cougars and the third edition of Coach Willie Fritz’s team. They have 19 starters back from a 10 and 3 team. They do have tough road games at Texas Tech, at Utah, and at West Virginia. An upset and look out. TCU and coach Sonny Dykes continue to surpass expectations almost every year.  The Horned Frogs have another good roster this year. They travel to Dublin, Ireland for a Week Zero game against North Carolina before an off week. They host BYU and if they win that one the last game at Texas Tech could be extra special. The other team in this group is the surprise of the league last year, Arizona. The Cats will not sneak up on anybody this year. They travel to BYU, to West Virginia, and to Texas Tech. Ouch.

   The next 7 teams you can put in a hat and shake them around and pour them out, they will all be formidable against each other and maybe, just maybe be good enough to upset someone from the first 2 tiers. They are UCF with Scott Frost in year 2 of his second tenure here. They do catch Houston, TCU, and BYU. Kansas State and first year coach Collin Klein. The Wildcats do get a schedule break in catching Houston at home, TCU on the road and the remaining games manageable. The Arizona State Sun Devils and coach Kenny Dilingham fell a notch last year after making the playoffs in 2024. Most of that was due to quarterback Sam Leavitt being injured much of the year. Well, due to the portal, he will be without Leavitt all year as he transferred to LSU. The schedule also doesn’t help. The Devils travel to Texas Tech, to BYU, to Arizona, and also a non conference away game at Texas A&M. Rich Rodriguez begins his second year in his second tenure at West Virginia. This edition will be much improved over last seasons 4 win bunch. The schedule maker did the Mountaineers no favors. They travel on back to back weekends to TCU and to Texas Tech before ending the year hosting Houston and then traveling to Utah. I think they will upset one of these teams and find a way to 7 wins. Cincinnati seems to have the toughest schedule in the Big 12. They go to Arizona, to West Virginia, to Houston, and to BYU. In addition they host Texas Tech and Utah. Good luck. Baylor opens the year fighting for coach Dave Aranda’s job. Coming off a losing 5 and 7 season with 6 losses in the last 7 games and giving up points more than 35 points in 6 games, The Bears have to show significant improvement. They open at a neutral sight game against Auburn in Atlanta and a team that really bullied them last year. They also travel to Arizona State, to BUY, and to Houston. They also host Texas Tech. The Bears will need a couple of upsets to save their coach.

   The last 4 teams of this 16 team league finished a combined 17 and 31. There does not seem to be a ton of improvement coming this season. Kansas only returns 11 starters from a disappointing 5 and 7 season. Oklahoma State was so bad they fired long time coach and legend Mike Gundy. New Coach Eric Morris has a job on his hands to better the 1 and 11 from last year. Colorado and the “Primetime” experiment may be coming to an end if the 3 and 9 season doesn’t improve. Iowa State has been very good and steady under Matt Campbell. In fact Campbell is the winningest coach in school history. However, he packed his luggage and headed to Penn State. He also took his best players with him. New coach Jimmy Rogers has only 4 returning starters from a 8 and 4 squad. I think it will be a rough first year in Ames.

   Check back on this blog in a couple of days as we look at Notre Dame and the non Power conferences.