Football is almost here!!!!!!!!

   While it may not seem like it, college football is up in two weeks. That will be week zero and then everybody gets going the following week. The weather is hot everywhere but here in the deep south, the heat index is 110 to 112 for a week now. The humidity is brutal. I am an old man now, but I remember as a youth having 2 a days and no water breaks in the same kind of heat. I often wonder how we made it through. My friends and I were talking about that last week on the golf course. Times have definitely changed.

   Things that have not changed and most likely never will. The eternal optimism that springs forward from every team before the season starts. The transfer portal, 12 team playoffs, and 50 million dollar rosters where Indiana can win a natty has all fan bases excited. If you have followed my blog the last 2 years, then you know I release free picks every week. I have bet college football for over 50 years and at least hold my own. I only put out “picks” I intend to play in some fashion. The first year of my blog hit 57% of picks and 54% of my leans. Last year was much better hitting on 58% of my picks and 61% of my leans. A pick is supposed to be slightly stronger than a lean. If you follow my blog, it is good information that you can use; then ride or fade. Strictly for entertainment purposes only.

   The pre season experts have all released their Top 25 by now and it is entertaining, something to read and talk about around the office water cooler, but usually not very accurate. My first post of the year for college football will be a quick look at how conferences will shape up and not necessarily a prediction of things to come. Picks and leans come from a week to week basis not pre season hopes. Please also follow my travel blog here at this same sight. simplemansimpleideas.com Now on to this season.

   Let’s start with still the best conference, The SEC. I know The Big has won the last 3 national titles and will agree they had the better top heavy teams. However, top to bottom, week in and week out, most ranked teams at the end of the year, and most teams in the playoffs; it is still The SEC. You can argue, I live in SEC country and that’s fair, but I will die on that hill, it is also accurate.

   The pre season media mostly all like the same 2 teams, Georgia and Texas to win the conference. The second tier of teams in varrying orders are Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama. The next teams up are Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. Next comes Mississippi State and Kentucky with Arkansas in last place. That is 16 teams and 6 of those have new coaches, 4 of which have never coached a game in this league. 7 of theses teams have played in a playoff game the last 2 years. There is usually a learning curve for new coaches, not always but usually. That means a team can upset someone they are not supposed to beat and lose to a bottom team. This league is a grind every week especially on the road and this year it goes to 9 conference games. That means half the league will have 5 road games. I seriously doubt any team goes 5 and 0 on the road (don’t think 4 and 0 either), hence no team will go undefeated in conference play.

   Now let’s quickly break down each teams most important games, or possible trap games that could trip them up. Georgia travels to Alabama, to Ole Miss, and to rival South Carolina, with Florida in Atlanta.  Hmmm, only 3 true road games. Kirby Smart is only 3 and 8 versus Alabama; Ole Miss game is the week after rivalry Florida game; and South Carolina treats Georgia as its second biggest rival. Texas goes to Tennessee, to Missouri, to LSU, to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma in Dallas. Next is Texas A&M with 5 true road tests. They face LSU in Baton Rouge, at Missouri, at Alabama, at South Carolina, and at Oklahoma which comes the week before arch rival Texas. Here comes Ole Miss and first year head coach Pete Golding (although he did coach them in the Egg Bowl and playoffs last year.) They are at Florida the week after hosting Lane Kiffin and LSU; already smelling a trap, at Vandy at Texas and at Oklahoma. LSU and their new multi million coach, Lane Kiffin and his 50 million dollar roster. They travel to what will be may be the most hostile environment of any game this year, at Ole Miss. Followed by games at Kentucky, at Auburn, at Tennessee, and at Arkansas. Turn to Oklahoma and their road games. At Georgia, at Mississippi State, at Florida ( the week before Ole Miss), and at Missouri. Let’s now look in the direction of Tuscaloosa. Alabama has road games beginning in week 2 at Kentucky with their new coach and 21 new players, at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at LSU (both of those teams consider the Tide their biggest rivals) and at Vanderbilt the week after LSU. The Tide and head coach Kalen DeBoer must improve the offensive line if they are to get where they want to go. They have to be able to pick up third and 3 or third and 2 by running the ball. They couldn’t last year. Moving on to the next group of teams starting with Tennessee. They travel to Arkansas the week before hosting rival Alabama, at South Carolina, at Texas A&M, and at Vanderbilt. Interesting schedule quirk this year for the Vols; they don’t play either Georgia or Florida. Very odd??? South Carolina has road games at Alabama, at Florida,  at Oklahoma, and at Arkansas. Next is the Florida Gators and new coach John Sumrall. Their season will be dictated by their third game of the year, at Auburn and another new coach. Florida will be 2 and 0 heading to this game, win it and the season turns drastically, lose it and it may be another long year in Gainesville. This may be the most important game for both these teams. After they also go to Missouri, at Texas, at Atlanta for arch rival Georgia, then at Kentucky. Next team is Missouri. They are picked near the bottom of this league nearly every year, yet Coach Drink always surprises. They will travel with the leagues best running back in Ahmad Hardy back for his senior year to Mississippi State, to Ole Miss, to Arkansas, and to Georgia. I don’t know who, but they will upset one or two teams again this season. Lets move to The Plains and look at Auburn and new coach Alex Golesh and his 14 South Florida transfers he brought with him. Coach G has a big job ahead of him. Auburn is coming off the worst stretch of football in their history. The Tigers at home were once as feared as any team, but have really struggled in Tiger Stadium of late. Since 2000 Auburn is 0-12 against their 2 biggest rivals Georgia and Alabama, 4 and 26 against ranked opponents ( that’s fewer than Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt), zero bowl wins and 5 consecutive losing seasons. Golesh is the fourth coach in that span, but I think he is the best of that group. Gus quit recruiting, Harsin was never a fit, and Freeze just quit when he couldn’t get a quarterback. Coach G knows what he is up against and has set out to change the culture back to one of toughness. I stated the importance of game 3 when covering Florida a couple of teams back. Auburn is at home hosting a team also with a new coach and coming off back to back losing seasons and their third coach since 2000. Both teams are desperate to get this win and start the conference off at 1 and 0. This sets the tone for Auburn, win this game and I think 8 and 4 is very realistic, lose it and I am afraid a 6th consecutive losing season is on the horizon. Road games to follow at Tennessee, at Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Mississippi State, and Alabama. Let’s look at Vanderbilt facing life without Diego Pavia, those 10 wins last year and those 13 seniors that graduated. They face road games at Auburn, at Georgia, at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, and at Florida. Time will tell if they can stay for real. The last 3 teams to look at will bite someone in a huge home upset, the trick will be knowing who and when. Mississippi State was close a couple of times last year and still have their head coach in place, so I think they have the best chance. The Bulldogs have road games at South Carolina, at LSU, at Texas, and at Ole Miss. They will have to get someone at home.  Kentucky brings new coach Will Stein back home from Oregon after their program went stale after 13 years under Mark Stoops. He became the winnest coach in Kentucky football history, but it wasn’t enough. Stein has brought some energy to the Cats. They have road games at Texas A&M, at South Carolina, at Oklahoma, at Tennessee and at Missouri. Like Mississippi State they will need to find a home upset. The final team also has a new energetic coach in Ryan Silverfield. The Hogs have only won 4 conference games the last 3 years and none last year. It will be a tough rebuild with the schedule this year. They travel to A&M, to Vanderbilt, to Auburn, and to Texas. Maybe they shock someone, but I think they go winless in league play again.

   So that is my SEC outlook. I don’t make conference predictions, only week to week. I will say my surprise team of the year will be the winner of Florida at Auburn game in week 3.

   Check back on this blog in a couple of days for a preview of The Big Conference.